Az Egyesült Királyság kilépése az EU-ból és az európai integráció

Losoncz Miklós (2017) Az Egyesült Királyság kilépése az EU-ból és az európai integráció. Prosperitas monográfiák . Budapesti Gazdasági Egyetem, Budapest. ISBN 978-615-5607-34-9

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Abstract

The objective of this book is to analyse issues related to the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, including developments preceding the referendum on UK membership, factors inﬂuencing the outcome of the referendum as well as the impact of the referendum on the United Kingdom, the European Union and the global economy. Its first assumption or hypothesis is that the referendum was originally an internal political matter of the UK, but later it proved to be European and global signifcance. The departure of the UK has an adverse impact on almost all economic actors although to diﬀerent extents, in diﬀerent segments and time horizons. Brexit is a negative sum game in which all the economic actors concerned suﬀer direct and indirect losses, although their size may vary. The second assumption or hypothesis is that non-quantifable political, legal and institutional consequences of Brexit are much more severe than quantifable fnancial and economic harms. Qualitative damages are associated with the implementation of the UK’s departure from the EU, the potential disintegration of the European Union and the worries and uncertainties related to the future of European integration. Non-quantifable risks and uncertainties could be manifested in the rise of various risk premia, the decline of trust in and support of European integration that could limit the room of manoeuvring of the leaders in EU institutions and member states. Adverse political consequences are more probable in the EU, whereas economic ones in the United Kingdom. The third assumption or hypothesis is that there must be deeper political and social problems, tensions and challenges accumulated in the past few years behind the outcome of the British referendum that have implications for not only the United Kingdom, but the functioning of the European Union as well. Nevertheless, assuming rational thinking, muddling through does not seem to be a rational option for the EU afer the referendum. British leaders have to elaborate their vision on the UK outside the EU and ofcials and politicians at EU institutions and member state governments have to design a more optimistic, attractive and convincing vision on the future of European integration. The fourth assumption or hypothesis is that Brexit may have an impact on the response the EU has to fnd to the global challenges. In doing so, the possibilities of the EU excluding the United Kingdom are more limited in certain felds and much broader in several other ones than formerly. Finally, Brexit raises questions on sustainable economic growth and development in both the EU and the United Kingdom. In the context of European integration, sustainability as a guiding principle has received rather few attention until recently. Although only a short time has passed since the referendum, some theoretical conclusions can already be drawn from the developments that have taken place so far.